Brazil-based Climatempo forecasters said showers started in some places this morning and should be more widespread in the center-west by afternoon or evening. Mato Grosso state's agricultural institute said in December nearly half of the soya crop was in bad or terrible condition because of a lack of rain in November, potentially resulting in a smaller crop.
The institute expects a crop of 28 million tonnes from Mato Grosso, which generally produces around 30 percent of Brazil's soyabeans, making it the country's top growing state. Most analysts expect a record national soyabean crop surpassing 100 million tonnes for the first time in Brazil, the world's No 2 producer and top exporter.
AGR Resources President Pedro Dejneka said last week after returning from a crop tour that concerns about dryness may be overblown, as the critically dry areas are on the fringe or outside the country's main producing areas. "AGR Brasil believes that only a major weather scare during the critical month of January can endanger a crop below 98 million tonnes," he said in a report, calling the possibility of a first crop above 100 million tonnes "alive and well." El Nino has brought rains almost exclusively to southern Brazil, causing an increased incidence of Asian soyabean rust fungus there. The Chicago-based Commodity Weather Group said on Monday the far south, where 10 percent of Brazil's soyabeans and corn are produced and flooding had been a concern, would largely stay on the drier side this week.